'미스터리 컨텐츠 연구'에 해당되는 글 3건

  1. 2007/08/11 서브프라임 모기지, 늘 당할 수 밖에 없는 금융버블의 미스터리.
  2. 2007/08/04 주식시장 미스터리, 버블의 낭떠러지로 질주하는 망아지
  3. 2007/08/01 건축무한육면각체의 진짜~ 비밀 (1)

서브프라임 모기지, 늘 당할 수 밖에 없는 금융버블의 미스터리.

미스터리 컨텐츠 연구 2007/08/11 10:19

지난 포스트에서 다룬 버블현상을 다시 정리하자면 이랬다.

1. 신용을 창출(없는 돈 찍어내는)하는 금융제도 하의 자본주의 사회는 늘 거품의 위협에 시달려야 한다.

2. 각 경제 주체들은 거품붕괴의 방지라는 공공의 선보다 자신의 이익을 더 우선시 하는 게 합리적인 판단이므로 거품을 절대로 막을 수 없다. 또한 단 한번도 예측해서 예방된 적이 없다.

 3. 금융은 시장원리라기 보다 의지의 원리에 의해 움직인다. 결국 전세계적 금융 헤게모니의 최상위 결정권을 가진 그룹에 의해 금융시장이 좌우 될 수 밖에 없다.

요즘, 일반인으로선 이름도 생소한 서브프라임 모기지 부실이라는 경제뉴스가 도배되고 있다. 옵티머 프라임도 아니고 말이지...
조금만 기사들에 집중하면 그 대략적 의미를 파악할 수는 있다.

서브프라임 모기지 - 돈 못벌고 신용 낮은 사람들을 위해 높은 이자 받고 주는 주택담보 대출.
미국 부동산버블붕괴,가격 하락>서브프라임 대출인들의 부실>자금 급회수>유동성 위기

주택시장에 뒤늦게 뛰어든 투자자들이 서브프라임 모기지 부실의 일차적인 원인을 제공했다

전 FRB 의장 그린스펀의 이 발언이 의미심장하다. 정말 교과서적인 금융 버블의 모양새이다.

그런데, 도대체 미국의 부동산 대출 상품 부실화로 왜 전세계적인 금융 위기에 시달려야 하는가?
 그것도 하루 이틀의 일이 아니라 오래전 부터 지적되어 왔고 문제가 불거질 때마다, 지금 당장의 우리 예측도 마찬가지, 별 영향 없을 것이라는 판단으로 일관되는데 말이다.

사용자 삽입 이미지
뜯어보면 이 현상도 앞 서 살펴본 금융의 악마적 속성들에서 조금도 벗어나지 못한 전형적 사건일 뿐이다.
서브프라임 모기지도 한마디로 요약하면 '묻지마. 일단 대출해서 질러봐' 인 셈이고 저소득 신용 불량자들에게 관대한 대출상품이니 성장세는 불보듯 뻔한 것이었고...결국 전형적 버블이 될 수 밖에 없는 운명인 것이다.
그리고 그 모기지는 모기지 업체에서 끝나는 게 아니라 고수익 고 리스크 금융상품으로 포장되 각종 금융권으로 팔려나가 돌고 돈다는 게 여파를 크게 만드는 직접적 이유가 된다.
세계화라는 미명하에 금융과 자본은 전세계적으로 통합되어 있기 때문에 소위 '나비효과'의 파장이 가장 극심한 분야이다.
거기다 금융은 사람들의 심리의 영향을 예민하게 받는다는 점 때문에 정부를 비롯한 기관은 태생적으로 눈가리고 아웅할 수 밖에 없고-그들이 부실하다라고 선언하는 순간 정말 부실의 아수라장으로 급격하게 빨려들어가 버릴테니- 대중들은 더욱 예측 가능성을 잃고 위기이 순간에 한꺼번에 몰려 자폭할 수 밖에 없는 악순환에 놓이게 된다.

일각에서는 요지부동인 중국의 위안화 절상을 압박하기 위한 고도의 금융 플레이라고도 한다.
어쨌건 쉬쉬하느라 상처를 키운 기관들이 본격적으로 개입을 선언하고 있는데 그 자체가 이미 수렁으로 밀어넣는 촉매제 역할을 하고 있는 건 아닌지...이미 정보력과 자본으로 무장한 '사태를 유도 가능한 위치'에 있는 베일에 가려진 그룹들은 그 열매를 받아먹기 위한 준비를 하고 있지나 않을까...결국 당하는 건 늘...힘없고 구조적으로 근시안적일 수 밖에 없는 우리들일 뿐...


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